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output gap
The GDP gap or the output gap is the difference between actual GDP or actual output and potential GDP. The calculation for the output gap is Y–Y
* where Y is actual output and Y
* is potential output. If this calculation yields a positive number it is called an inflationary gap and indicates the growth of aggregate demand is outpacing the growth of aggregate supply—possibly creating inflation; if the calculation yields a negative number it is called a recessionary gap—possibly signifying deflation.
The percentage GDP gap is the actual GDP minus the potential GDP divided by the potential GDP.
.
February 2013 data from the Congressional Budget Office showed that the United States had a projected output gap for 2013 of roughly $1 trillion, or nearly 6% of potential GDP.〔(【引用サイトリンク】url=http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/43902_EconomicBaselineProjections.xls )〕
==Okun's law: the relationship between output and unemployment==
Okun's law is based on regression analysis of U.S. data that shows a correlation between unemployment and GDP. Okun's law can be stated as: For every 1% increase in cyclical unemployment (actual unemployment – natural rate of unemployment), GDP will decrease by β%.
%Output gap = −β x %Cyclical unemployment
This can also be expressed as:
where:
*Y is actual output
*Y
* is potential output
*u is actual unemployment
*ū is the natural rate of unemployment
*β is a constant derived from regression to show the link between deviations from natural output and natural unemployment.
抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』
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